Just listened to the Social Innovations Network on the future of food. Basically what Michael Pollan and John Mackey are predicting is a change from the industrial era to an ecological era. The conciousness of the consumers and the field changing from maximum profits to other values, such as soil health, animal welfare, fair trade, local food, atrisan food, organic food, ecological food, and ethical food.

Now I just have to combine this with the imminent peak oil event, which will make gasoline, transportation, plastic, pesticides, fertilizers, and pretty much anything oil based much more expensive than what it has been for the last 100 years.

Before the green revolution, it was estimated that we can support 1,5 billion people on this planet. Although the green revolution included many technological advancements, much of it was due to cheap oil, which allowed use of pesticides and fertilizers to yield bigger crops anywhere. We’re currently at 6 billion people, and I guess 2 billion aren’t getting enough or proper food. So what happens when oil starts becoming less and less available, and presumably the US and other “developed nations” will take what they need by force, leaving developing nations with hugely rising costs for oil based products, including energy?

It seems likely that we cannot support 6 billion people without the use of oil. Did you know that one barrel of oil equals 3 man-years of energy? And as the US is promoting bio diesels, it’s potential food that’s being used to power cars. Seems like starvation will become an even bigger problem in many parts of the world.

So what will this mean for local, organic, or ethical foods? Well, local food means there’s less transportation involved. Currently transportation amounts to only about 10% of the energy cost of food, but with rising oil prices, this figure may increase, making local foods actually relatively cheaper than food that’s imported from the other side of the planet.

Organic food differs from nation to nation but basically means less or no pesticides, no irradiation, or no antibiotics for animals (it’s something like 1/3 of all antibiotics in US that are used for food animals). Well, pesticides and antibiotics are both heavily dependent on oil derivatives, and will become more expensive, so organic food will also become relatively cheaper.

And I’ve understood that in general as energy becomes less scarce, people will need to start adapting to less energy consuming foods, meaning less meat, more vegetables and more fish. And the seas are kind of running out of fish even as it is (although quite a fair amount of this fish is used as fodder for cattle).

Sustainability will become a major concept within the next decade – economy, energy, ethics and ecology all need to be considered. And us consumers have the ultimate power to vote with out wallets. What kind of food do you buy? Currently the ecological choices are more expensive, but this might very well change.

PS. There’s a great photo series by Time Magazine showing what we currently eat around the world.