Every now and then these strange connections between seemingly unrelated topics happen. This time it happened yesterday when I was at a Mobile seminar organized by Hetky, and one of the presenters mentioned that even though the IT bubble burst and left thousands of bankrupt companies in its wake, there were still some good companies that survived. And of course it’s not a surprise that the good companies survived. But the connection to the evolution of life happened because I had just finished reading The Science of Discworld by Terry Pratchett, Ian Stewart, and Jack Cohen. And here’s the connection:
The planet Earth is irregularly but repeatedly being hit by events that very nearly wipe out all life. But not quite. There’s bacteria in the bottoms of the oceans, and even 10 miles deep into the crust you find bacteria living on just rock silicates. The typical event is a large lump of rock that just hits our planet (doesn’t really matter where), causing a massive mega-tsunami that goes around the planet a few times, but – more importantly – the tremors it causes (that of course would destroy any buildings if there have been any at those times) converge on the other side of the planet, breaking the crust in an area about the size of India, causing massive vulcanic activity that will most likely burn the atmosphere, then cover everything in acid and dust, and finally cool the planet so that pretty much everything is covered with a mile or two of ice. Not many higher life forms survive a pummelling like that.
An event such as described above probably accounts for the changes in geological epocs. And, of course, only the fittest survice. Those that are able to adapt themselves to the rapidly changing environment. But the most important implication is that evolution itself would not happen if there were no catastrophies. The dinosaurs ruled for a hundred million years, and pretty much nothing happened in the way of evolution. Since dinosaurs worked, they stayed the same. Boring. But throw a spanner the size of Texas into the works, and things get interesting.
So while the bursting of the IT bubble caused a lot of people to lose a lot of money (or, more correctly: got some people rich with other peoples’ money), it also performed a necessary operation – a change of environment. And, to be more accurate, the bursting of the bubble was not the cause, but the result of people realizing that the much-hyped IT businesses weren’t as great as they tried to make you believe. And most of the companies got wiped out, and rightly so. The ones that survived were able to function in an environment without inflated expectations.
Another way of looking at this is that after any major change in the environment, there is always a new niche, which is pretty soon filled by a rich variety of creatures. After the dinosaurs became chalk, the small mammals started to stake their claim in the suddenly-free environment. And this variety of creatures probably expanded until the space was taken up, and then competition ensued again. And the winners are the species that are still going strong.
Likewise, when the IT business got going, it created a new, free niche, that needed to be filled. Many, many people and companies converged on this free space, and most were successful, since there was no competition – there was enough investor money for everyone. But when that excess money ran out, competition ensued. And the weak were pulverized.
As a post scriptum I have to mention another environment that will need adaptation in the foreseeable future – stock markets. Because public stock markets don’t really produce money, but rather just transfer it around (if someone earns money through investments, it’s always someone else’s money), they are basically a huge pyramid scheme – getting new people to join with their money, so the guys at the top of the pyramid (the top professional investors) can cash it for themselves. And this whole pyramid will come tumbling down in either of two cases: 1) people stop joining (as in the great depression in the USA in the 1920’s) because the don’t believe in the system anymore, or 2) there’s no more people left to join. So at the latest when everyone is on board, the system will simply break, because without newbie money flowing in, there’s nothing to be gained. Are you prepared for a no-growth economy? Or as everyone gets their money out as quickly as possible and the bubble bursts, and all the effects thereof?
Or are you ready for the next natural catastrophy, which most likely is the melting of the ice caps, melting of the methane crystal deposits in the bottoms of the sea, melting of the permanently frozen methane deposits in the tundras, and probably many other yet undiscovered mechanisms, which will feed each other and warm this planet significantly, raise the sea level by 10 meters, and change the ecological conditions everywhere. And in addition the ice caps will probably produce a few mega-tsunamis as they melt in continent-sized pieces sliding into the sea, destroying all coastal civilization. As most major cities are coastal, a tsunami + 10 meters of water means a lot of homeless people. As most nuclear power plants are coastal, it will also mean hundreds of deposits of hot radioactive fuel, without working coolant systems. This could happen – oh, tomorrow, for example. Are you ready for that? I’m not. This last vision of the future is pretty much what Risto Isomäki describes in his newest book, Sarasvatin Hiekkaa (see review) (only in Finnish, sorry).
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